Analyzing Bitcoin ETF Performance: A Comprehensive Examination of Futures and Spot Markets
Bitcoin ETFs are currently causing a stir, as the US SEC has recently approved approximately 11 Bitcoin Spot ETFs, including those offered by BlockRock, Fidelity, and Invesco.
In this article, we will provide a comprehensive analysis of the performance of Bitcoin ETFs this month, using reliable data sources. Our analysis will not only focus on spot ETFs but also include Bitcoin Futures ETFs. Join us as we examine the trends in performance, offering a detailed overview of the current state of Bitcoin ETFs in the market.
The aim of this monthly report is to provide a clear and straightforward understanding of the latest developments in the world of Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds.
1. In-Depth Analysis of Bitcoin Futures ETFs
As of the time of writing this report, ProShare, Valkyrie, Global X, and Ark/21 Shares are the top players in the Bitcoin Futures ETF market based on their Asset Under Management (AUM).
Let’s take a deep dive into these top players using various parameters.
1.1. Bitcoin Futures ETF: A Basic Data Overview
This basic data overview provides an overall view of the performance of the top players.
Bitcoin Futures ETF
Price
Volume
1 Month Average Volume
AUM
Shares
ProShares (BITO)
$24.66
13,097,000
16,234,212
$1,996.9M
85.2M
Valkyrie (BTF)
$16.86
74,000
76,392
$41.8M
2.6M
Global X (BITS)
$60.70
8,900
9,375
$22.1M
0.4M
Ark/21 Shares (ARKA)
$51.23
9,600
7,350
$12.8M
0.3M
Let’s dig deeper into what the basic data indicates.
1.2. Analysis of Bitcoin Futures ETF Monthly Average Volume
The one-month average volume of the top four Bitcoin Futures ETFs provides insights into their market activity and liquidity. ProShares (BITO) leads with a significantly higher volume, indicating greater investor interest and potentially smoother trading. Valkyrie (BTF) follows suit with moderate volume, suggesting steady market participation. However, Global X (BITS) and Ark/21 Shares (ARKA) exhibit lower volumes, implying less liquidity and potentially higher volatility.
1.3. Analysis of Bitcoin Futures ETF Expense Ratio
The expense ratios of the top four Bitcoin Futures ETFs vary, with Valkyrie (BTF) having the highest at 1.24% and Global X (BITS) having the lowest at 0.65% among the top four ETFs. The expense ratio reflects the percentage of assets deducted annually for fund expenses, impacting investors’ returns. Higher ratios like BTF may eat into profits more significantly over time, while lower ratios like BITS may offer cost efficiency.
1.4. Analysis of Bitcoin Futures ETF Performance
The one-month returns of the top four Bitcoin Futures ETFs vary significantly. Global X (BITS) demonstrates the highest return of 29.05%, potentially indicating strong performance but also higher volatility. ProShares (BITO) follows with 18.91%, while Ark/21 Shares (ARKA) and Valkyrie (BTF) show returns of 18.01% and 13.14% respectively. Higher returns may signal higher risk and potential rewards, while lower returns might imply steadier but possibly slower growth.
1.5. Analysis of Bitcoin Futures ETF One Month Net Fund Flow
The one-month net fund flow of the top four Bitcoin Futures ETFs indicates sentiment towards each fund. ProShares (BITO) leads with a positive flow of $78.62 million, suggesting strong investor interest and potential confidence in the fund’s performance. Ark/21 Shares (ARKA) follows with a smaller positive flow, while Global X (BITS) shows modest inflows. However, Valkyrie (BTF) experiences a negative flow of -$2.9 million, possibly indicating investor withdrawals or decreased confidence.
1.6. Bitcoin Futures ETF Technical Analysis
By analyzing the top four Bitcoin Futures ETFs based on the provided data, several technical indicators offer insights into their performance.
Firstly, looking at price levels, Global X (BITS) has the highest price at $60.70, indicating potential strength in the market, while Valkyrie (BTF) has the lowest price at $16.86, possibly indicating lower market demand.
Secondly, considering volatility, Global X (BITS) also exhibits the highest volatility at 62.62%, suggesting higher price fluctuations compared to others, potentially presenting both increased risks and rewards.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) values for all ETFs are relatively high, indicating that they might be overbought, which could signal a potential reversal in price direction in the near future.
Moving Averages show the average price over 20 days, with Global X (BITS) having the highest average at $50.20, indicating a relatively strong upward trend.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) values suggest the direction of the trend, with Global X (BITS) showing the highest value, potentially indicating a strong bullish trend.
Williams % Range reflects overbought or oversold conditions, with all ETFs indicating relatively high values, suggesting caution as they might be nearing overbought territory.
In summary, while Global X (BITS) seems to be exhibiting strong bullish signals with high prices, volatility, and MACD values, caution should be exercised due to overbought conditions as indicated by RSI and Williams % Range.
2. In-Depth Analysis of Bitcoin Spot ETFs
As of the time of writing this report, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, iShare Bitcoin Trust, Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust by Fidelity, Ark/21 Shares Bitcoin Trust, and Bitwise Bitcoin ETP are the top players in the Bitcoin Spot ETF market based on their Asset Under Management (AUM).
Let’s analyze these top players using various parameters.
2.1. Bitcoin Spot ETF: A Basic Data Overview
This basic data overview provides an overall view of the performance of the top players.
Bitcoin Spot ETF
Price
Volume
1 Month Average Volume
AUM
Shares
Grayscale (GBTC)
$46.41
13,357,301
16,215,621
$23.76B
514.5M
BlackRock (IBIT)
$29.67
21,166,400
16,585,666
$5.68B
203.6M
Fidelity (FBTC)
$45.52
7,629,300
7,817,521
$4.25B
87.4M
Ark/21 Shares (ARKB)
$52.08
2,734,200
2,282,613
$1.29B
26.6M
Bitwise (BITB)
$28.37
6,324,300
2,292,663
$1.03B
40.6M
Let’s go beyond what the basic data conveys.
2.2. Bitcoin Spot ETF Average Volume Analysis
The one-month average volume of the top five Bitcoin Spot ETFs varies significantly. BlackRock (IBIT) and Grayscale (GBTC) lead with high volumes, indicating substantial market participation and potentially higher liquidity. Fidelity (FBTC) follows with moderate volume, while Ark/21 Shares (ARKB) and Bitwise (BITB) show relatively lower volumes. Higher volumes may suggest greater investor interest and confidence in the ETF’s underlying assets, while lower volumes might imply less market activity and potentially higher volatility.
2.3. Bitcoin Spot ETF Expense Ratio Analysis
The expense ratios of the top five Bitcoin Spot ETFs vary, with Grayscale (GBTC) having the highest at 1.50% and Bitwise (BITB) having the lowest at 0.20% among the top five ETFs. The expense ratio reflects the percentage of assets deducted annually for fund expenses. Lower ratios may attract cost-conscious investors, while higher ratios might indicate additional services or higher management fees. The top five Bitcoin Spot ETFs’ expense ratios range from 0.20% to 1.50%. Grayscale (GBTC) has the highest ratio, potentially impacting investor returns more significantly over time. Conversely, Ark/21 Shares (ARKB) and Bitwise (BITB) offer the lowest ratios, indicating cost efficiency.
2.4. Bitcoin Spot ETF Performance Analysis
The one-month returns of the top five Bitcoin Spot ETFs cluster closely between 18.28% and 19.96%. Grayscale (GBTC) exhibits the highest return, potentially indicating strong performance. Ark/21 Shares (ARKB), Fidelity (FBTC), BlackRock (IBIT), and Bitwise (BITB) follow closely, showing similar returns. This suggests overall positive performance. Higher returns may signify higher potential rewards.
2.5. Bitcoin Spot ETF Net Fund Flow Analysis
The one-month net fund flows of the top five Bitcoin Spot ETFs highlight investor sentiment towards each fund. BlackRock (IBIT) and Fidelity (FBTC) lead with significant inflows of $4.09 billion and $3.84 billion respectively, suggesting strong investor interest. Ark/21 Shares (ARKB) and Bitwise (BITB) follow with smaller positive inflows, indicating continued investor confidence. However, Grayscale (GBTC) experiences a substantial outflow of -$6.59 billion, potentially signaling investor withdrawals or decreased confidence in the fund’s performance.
2.6. Bitcoin Spot ETF Technical Analysis
By analyzing the top five Bitcoin Spot ETFs based on the provided data, several technical indicators offer insights into their performance.
Ark/21 Shares (ARKB) boasts the highest price among the ETFs at $52.08, indicating potential market strength. However, Grayscale (GBTC) closely follows with a price of $46.41, suggesting competitive market demand.
Volatility, represented by the 20-day volatility metric, is relatively consistent across all the top five ETFs, ranging from 40.21% (Bitwise – BITB) to 40.90% (Ark/21 Shares – ARKB), implying similar levels of price fluctuations.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) values provide insights into the momentum of price movements. Grayscale (GBTC) stands out with an RSI of 71, indicating potential overbought conditions, while others hover around 60, suggesting strong bullish momentum but with less extreme levels.
Moving Averages, particularly the 20-day moving average, reflect the trend direction. Ark/21 Shares (ARKB) again leads with the highest average at $44.73, indicating a strong uptrend.
MACD values indicate the strength and direction of the trend, with Ark/21 Shares (ARKB) exhibiting the highest value at 5.73, reinforcing its bullish momentum.
Williams % Range values suggest potential overbought or oversold conditions. While all the top ETFs show relatively low values, caution may be warranted, particularly for Grayscale (GBTC), given its highest RSI.
In summary, while Ark/21 Shares (ARKB) demonstrates strong bullish signals across multiple indicators, caution is advised due to potential overbought conditions. Other ETFs display similar trends but with varying degrees of strength, providing opportunities for investors to diversify their portfolios.
This report offers a comprehensive overview of all the major developments in the Bitcoin ETF market. What sets this report apart is its coverage of both the Bitcoin Futures ETF market and the Bitcoin Spot ETF market. The reliability of the report is ensured by the trustworthy sources from which the data is sourced.