Analyst Draws Parallel Between 2024 Halving and 2020 Halving, Shares Insights on Bitcoin Death Spiral Myth
The recent Bitcoin halving event took place without much fanfare. On April 19, 2024, the reward for Bitcoin miners was cut in half, going from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per mined block. Surprisingly, there were no extravagant celebrations, and Bitcoin’s price remained relatively stable at around $64,000.
Analyst Casey has now shared insights into what happened in the months following the previous halving in 2020. In a new video, Casey analyzed the price chart on a weekly basis and observed the transition from a bearish to a bullish trend. During the following weeks, Bitcoin’s price fluctuated between $8,500 and $12,000.
However, it wasn’t until mid-October 2020 that the price began to surge, ultimately reaching an astonishing all-time high of approximately $69,000 by November 2021. This was followed by a bearish market sentiment, leading to a prolonged bear market until January 2023. Since then, Bitcoin has been on an upward trajectory, with occasional minor bearish phases, and its current price hovers around $60,000.
Looking ahead, Casey examined the factors that differentiate the current situation from previous cycles. Notably, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of around $73,000 before the halving, which had never been seen before in prior cycles. Additionally, the involvement of major institutions in the cryptocurrency space, coupled with geopolitical shifts away from the US dollar, introduces new dynamics that could influence Bitcoin’s trajectory.
Casey also addressed the myth of the Bitcoin death spiral, debunking it by highlighting the network’s resilience and the diversity among miners. Despite challenges faced by individual miners, the network’s self-adjusting difficulty mechanism ensures its continuous operation.
In terms of future scenarios, Casey speculated on a potential decrease in Bitcoin dominance and a shift of capital into alternative coins. She predicted a shorter and more condensed altcoin season, driven by increased institutional involvement and market awareness.
Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin Halving