Analyst Forecasts 60% Probability of SEC Prioritizing Ethereum ETF Approval by May
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may soon give the green light to Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs), according to analyst James Seyffart. With a 60% chance of approval, there is growing excitement in the crypto world as experts closely monitor the SEC’s decision and its potential impact on the market.
There is optimism among the cryptocurrency community, as history suggests that the SEC may initially reject the proposal for Ethereum ETFs but eventually approve it by the critical deadline of May 23, 2024. Geoffrey Kendrick shares this optimistic outlook, citing the SEC’s previous stance on Ethereum and its classification as a regulated futures contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).
In a recent interview with Scott Melker, Seyffart discusses the SEC’s initial delay and speculates that the decision may be further postponed due to factors such as Proof of Stake (PoS) vs. Proof of Work (PoW). Reports from TD Cowen also suggest a potential delay until 2025 or 2026, aligning with the SEC’s cautious approach in the current U.S. political climate.
The SEC’s decision on Ethereum ETFs will have broader implications for the entire crypto market. While Seyffart is less confident in Ethereum ETF approval than Bitcoin ETFs, the approval of Bitcoin ETFs had a significant impact on Bitcoin’s price, and a similar response is expected for Ethereum.
Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink are both supportive of an SEC-approved spot Ethereum ETF. Lubin highlights the efficiency of ETFs as financial tools and emphasizes Ethereum’s role in transactions and storage. Fink, following the success of BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF, is now advocating for an Ethereum ETF.
As the May 23 deadline approaches, the crypto community eagerly awaits the SEC’s decision, which could be a turning point for Ethereum and restore faith in the SEC. If approved, the price of Ethereum could experience a significant surge, potentially reaching $4,000. Interestingly, after ETF approval, Ethereum may face less selling pressure compared to Bitcoin due to its smaller slice in the Grayscale Ethereum Fund and the fewer shares held by the FTX bankruptcy estate.
Overall, the possibility of Ethereum ETF approval has generated excitement and anticipation in the crypto world, with experts closely monitoring the SEC’s decision and its potential impact on Ethereum’s price and the broader market.