Analysts Optimistic about Bitcoin in 2024, Yet Advise with a Hint of Caution
Bitcoin is anticipated to have an eventful year in 2024, according to seasoned analyst Adrian Zduńczyk. Using a combination of charting techniques, chart pattern studies, fundamental factors, and seasonal records, Zduńczyk predicts exciting moments for Bitcoin. However, he also warns that while profits are not guaranteed, losses are inevitable.
In his recent Twitter thread, Zduńczyk not only provides forecasts but also offers urgent statistics and tips to help grow your portfolio in the coming year. He reveals that Bitcoin closed December with a 12% gain and experienced an additional 3% surge on New Year’s Day. Coinpedia reports that Bitcoin is currently trading at $45,259. Zduńczyk points to the S&P 500 January Barometer pattern, which suggests that January’s performance could set the tone for the entire year with an 83.6% probability.
This pattern, combined with a strong S&P return, could strengthen Bitcoin’s position in a bullish stock market. Furthermore, Bitcoin’s weekly chart indicates $30,000 as a support level, with rising 50-week and 200-week trends, and $48,000-508,000 as resistance levels.
Looking ahead, the anticipation of the 4th halving in mid-April puts Bitcoin at the center of speculation, especially with hopes for ETF approvals. The potential involvement of institutions, including BlackRock’s iShares IBTC Bitcoin Spot ETF, raises the possibility of trillions of dollars flowing into the crypto market.
Despite the current bullish run, Zduńczyk advises caution based on technical indicators. Daily RSI and ATR suggest potential slowdowns in buying momentum and increased volatility. Bearish signals from BirbicatorPRO’s dynamic ATR trend model indicate resistances at $44,725 and $43,970, signaling a period of consolidation.
The market sentiment remains bullish, driven by speculation, as indicated by the high ‘greed’ sentiment. However, the rising costs of Bitcoin mining at $44,550 present short-term profitability challenges. Understanding seasonal tendencies, especially in January, is crucial, given historical data that forecasts positive returns with an average end-of-month gain of +13%.
Analyzing historical quarterly stats, Zduńczyk estimates a target price of around $52,000 by the end of Q1. He advises caution against expecting significant selloffs and draws parallels between Bitcoin’s behavior and that of a beta-volatile tech stock on the Nasdaq.
To succeed in 2024, Zduńczyk emphasizes relying on profitable facts and trend-following. He suggests following a practical guide that prioritizes raw numbers and solid data over speculative opinions, eschews trading against trends, and navigates the volatile cryptocurrency market prudently.