Bitcoin Analyst Predicts 40% Crash: What’s the Future of Bitcoin?

Rekt Capital, a well-known analyst, is predicting a significant drop in Bitcoin’s value of up to 40% as the halving event approaches. By studying historical cycles, the analyst has observed that retracements of this magnitude typically occur around 60 days before the halving takes place.

The focus is currently on the pre-halving period, which spans the next 42 days. Historical data suggests that this phase is often followed by a rally in Bitcoin’s price after a retracement. The analyst emphasizes the pattern of retracement, rally, and retrace during this period, suggesting that it sets the stage for a subsequent surge to new all-time highs following a period of reaccumulation.

When comparing previous cycles, the analyst notes that retracements can vary in magnitude. For instance, there was an 18% drop in the 2015-2016 period and a 40% retracement in 2016. The recent 20% retracement in 2020 is also mentioned, but it is important to note that this was influenced by external factors such as the global pandemic.

The analyst also highlights the significance of the orange moving average during pre-halving years, pointing out that it has historically acted as a reliable support level. Currently, the value of this moving average is approximately $36,000. It is suggested that in 2024, if Bitcoin’s price experiences a potential dip, it may retest this level.

Furthermore, the analysis draws attention to the green 350-day moving average, which is currently at $60,000. Historical data indicates that revisiting this green moving average during the halving year often leads to a rejection.

The analysis acknowledges the uncertainty surrounding potential retracement percentages and reminds readers that emotional factors, especially during the halving event, can impact market dynamics. The next 40 days are considered crucial, as there is a possibility of a retracement that could set the stage for a pre-halving rally.

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