Bitcoin ETF Forecast for This Week: Analyzing the Potential Influence of BTC Price on the Cryptocurrency Market

The Bitcoin community is eagerly awaiting the decision of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on the first U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), which is seen as a significant step towards wider adoption of cryptocurrencies. Analysts believe that the SEC may announce its decision this week, which could have a significant impact on the market following Bitcoin’s reaction to the news.
There is a 5% chance that the SEC may reject the ETF. This probability has decreased from 10%, according to Bloomberg analysts. Potential reasons for rejection include the withdrawal of Ark, new objections from the SEC, disregard for court decisions, and intervention from the Biden administration. However, these scenarios now seem less likely.
Better Markets, an organization focused on financial regulation, has urged the SEC to reject spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs), including ETFs, citing concerns about fraud and manipulation in the Bitcoin market. The organization’s president, Dennis Kelleher, believes that protecting investors and retirees is crucial and that approving these proposals would be a breach of legal obligations.
In terms of Bitcoin’s price forecast, many analysts predict long-term growth, with the potential ETF tapping into a significant amount of advised wealth, expanding Bitcoin’s investor base. However, CryptoQuant warns of a possible immediate “sell the news” reaction, with Bitcoin potentially declining to around $32,000 next month. This could be attributed to traders realizing their profits and a market correction occurring. The NUPL metric currently suggests a neutral sentiment.
Nevertheless, if the ETF is approved, a short-squeeze in Bitcoin’s price is expected, breaking the current consolidation phase and challenging the $48,100 resistance level. This resistance is likely to be surpassed quickly as long-term holders gain more confidence. However, when Bitcoin reaches the $50,000 to $52,000 range, there may be a slowdown as short-term holders exit their positions. After this, momentum could build again, driving the overall crypto market value above $2 trillion.
Tags: Bitcoin ETF