Bitcoin ETF in January Likely to be Approved, According to K33 Research
Anticipation surrounding the approval of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States has sparked a surge in Bitcoin (BTC) and the wider cryptocurrency market. Today, Bitcoin surpassed $42,000 and briefly reached $43,000 before encountering strong resistance at $43,500, failing to break through this crucial level.
In a recent report, researchers at K33 Research expressed a high level of certainty that the green light for a spot Bitcoin ETF is now highly likely to be given in January. In updated filings, BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has shown its willingness to implement cash creation before the January 10 deadline. This aligns with the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) preference for a “cash redemption model” for Bitcoin ETFs. This model allows investors to exchange their shares for fiat currency instead of the underlying asset, making liquidation smoother without the need for direct Bitcoin sales. Analyst Eric Balchunas from Bloomberg interprets BlackRock’s adoption of the cash-based model as a strategic move ahead of the holidays.
K33’s senior analyst Vetle Lunde and vice president Anders Helseth view this development as a positive indication that the ETF could be approved in the coming weeks, despite acknowledging the inefficiencies of the cash creation model.
Notably, these adjustments in filings often occur after discussions with the SEC, indicating the regulator’s inclination towards approving a Bitcoin ETF. James Seyffart, an ETF expert at Bloomberg, expects the SEC to give the green light for the first spot Bitcoin ETF between January 5 and 10, in line with the initial final deadline for a Bitcoin ETF application.
While Bitcoin remains stable within the $40,000 to $44,000 range, altcoins are gaining popularity and experiencing an increase in open interest. This stagnant range has drawn attention to altcoins, particularly those that have seen rapid price surges, such as ORDI, BONK, TIA, and INJ.
Although a specific timeline for SEC approval is still unclear, experts and crypto enthusiasts anticipate a favorable decision by January 10. John Deaton and investor Mike Alfred predict a staggering 98.7% chance of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval in January, while Trader Bob Loukas is betting on a 99.9% chance of the ETF receiving the green light.
There is much speculation on how a spot Bitcoin ETF could impact the price of BTC and the overall cryptocurrency market. Predictions range from significant investments flowing into BTC to concerns about its effect on current BTC operations, with experts at JPMorgan Chase suggesting a negative impact on the market.
Tags: Bitcoin ETF