Bitcoin Price Forecast for Q4 Historical Patterns Suggest BTC Price on the Verge of a Surge
Benjamin Cowen recently discussed the importance of Bitcoin dominance in the cryptocurrency market. In the near future, Bitcoin will face a decision: either rise above its Bull Market Support Band (BMSB) or continue to encounter resistance. Cowen pointed out that Bitcoin has slipped below its BMSB during the summer of 2024. However, this is not a new occurrence as similar trends have been observed in previous years. For example, in August 2023, Bitcoin dropped below its BMSB, remained there for several weeks, and then rallied strongly in the fourth quarter.
Cowen drew a parallel between Bitcoin’s performance in 2013 and 2024, noting that in both years, BTC reached a local low on July 5th. He suggested that if Bitcoin follows a similar pattern to 2013, it could experience a “left-translated peak,” quickly reclaim the BMSB, and hold it as support for the next 1-2 months, leading to a rally in the fourth quarter.
Typically, Bitcoin tends to peak in the fourth quarter of the post-halving year, which would be 2025 for the current cycle. However, it may take longer for Bitcoin to reclaim its BMSB, indicating a slower but steady climb towards its peak.
Cowen predicts a strong rally in Bitcoin dominance in the fourth quarter, potentially reaching around 60%. He argues that Bitcoin, being less risky than other cryptocurrencies, is likely to provide better returns than most altcoins until the Federal Reserve changes its stance. This perspective highlights Bitcoin’s role as a safer and more reliable investment in the current market environment.
Furthermore, Cowen emphasizes the critical level of Bitcoin’s 2-week Relative Strength Index (RSI), which will help determine whether Bitcoin follows the patterns of 2013 and 2016, finding support around these levels, or the trend of 2019, where it fell through and experienced a temporary downtrend within a larger uptrend. This analysis provides a technical framework for understanding the potential paths Bitcoin may take.
In response to Cowen, Zia ul Haque agrees with the prediction of a fourth-quarter rally but expresses doubt about Bitcoin’s dominance exceeding 58%. He points out that as each cycle progresses, more money is invested in altcoins, with many investors holding onto them despite market fluctuations. According to Haque, this dynamic could eventually lead to a bottoming out of altcoins.
In conclusion, Cowen believes that Bitcoin’s future in the fourth quarter of 2024 depends on its ability to rise above the Bull Market Support Band (BMSB). If it follows the patterns of previous years, Bitcoin may experience a strong recovery and rally. However, if it follows the trend of 2019, it may continue to struggle. As we progress through the summer, we will closely monitor Bitcoin’s ability to overcome its current resistance and the factors that will influence its trajectory in the coming months.
What do you think? Will the fourth quarter bring changes to crypto assets, or will the year-end downturn continue? Stay tuned to find out!