Polymarket Experiences Surge as Traders Wager $1.5 Million on Approval of Bitcoin ETF
Approximately $1.5 million is on the line as traders take a gamble on Polymarket, turning the approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the SEC into a high-stakes bet. The verdict is expected by January 15.
The Polygon-based gambling platform, Polymarket, is where traders are placing their bets, choosing between “Yes” or “No” in anticipation of the SEC’s decision on Bitcoin ETF applications. The total value of these bets is currently around $1.5 million, with most traders favoring the “Yes” outcome.
Each share’s value represents the odds of a positive or negative decision and is subject to fluctuations reflecting the crypto market. Currently, a “Yes” share costs $0.79, while a “No” share is valued at $0.21.
A prominent trader known as “kiwi” holds a substantial $421,000 worth of “Yes” shares, contrasting with the top holder for “No,” who has a modest $15,000 in shares.
According to Polymarket’s terms, if any spot Bitcoin ETF gains approval from the SEC by January 15, 2024, at 11:59:59 pm Eastern Time, the market will resolve as “Yes.” Otherwise, it will resolve as “No,” determining the winnings or losses for the bettors.
The primary source for market resolution, as stated by Polymarket, will be information from the SEC. However, the platform acknowledges that a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.
Redditors have been closely following this speculative endeavor, and reactions have been mixed. Some criticize the betting, with one user describing it as “putting up dollars to win dimes,” while another expresses concern about potentially losing their child’s college fund.
Despite the criticism, some Redditors inject humor into the discussion. In the Cryptocurrency subreddit, one user refers to the bets as “stupid,” comparing the endeavor to “putting up dollars to win dimes.” On a lighter note, a community member humorously mentions their imminent loss of a college fund, while another playfully apologizes to their “crypto grandkids” for their impending actions.