VanEck Forecasts Ethereum Layer-2 to Reach $1 Trillion by 2030
VanEck, the global investment manager, has recently unveiled its $1 trillion projection for Ethereum’s Layer-2 (L2) solutions by 2030. These L2 solutions are anticipated to outperform the main blockchain in terms of revenue generation, as they aim to address scalability issues.
To achieve this, technologies such as ZKUs (zero-knowledge roll-ups) and ORUs (optimistic roll-ups) will be utilized to process transactions off the main blockchain. This will enable L2s to surpass Ethereum’s main blockchain in terms of performance.
While there is optimism surrounding L2s, VanEck has cautioned that most L2 tokens are not the primary currency within the cryptocurrency ecosystem. However, certain L2 solutions have gained recognition for their success, thanks to their well-established ecosystems and strategic airdrops. Examples of such solutions include Arbritrum, Blast, and Optimism.
According to data from DefiLlama, Arbritrum ranks fifth in terms of total value locked ($3.17 billion), Blast ranks sixth ($1.3 billion), and Optimism ranks eleventh ($952.69 million).
The success of L2 solutions is evaluated based on several criteria, including transaction costs, user experience, trust assumptions, ecosystem size, and developer experience. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has also emphasized the importance of layer-3 (L3) solutions, highlighting the need for different layers to serve distinct purposes for effective layering.
In terms of scalability, the VanEck report highlights the EIP-4844 upgrade, which introduces “Blob Space” to significantly reduce data posting costs, thereby benefiting L2 operations financially. The report also explores various revenue models for L2 solutions, identifying transaction sequencing as the primary source of income, along with on-chain and off-chain cost structures.
By 2030, a significant portion of transaction value and total value locked (TVL) is expected to be captured by L2s. This will be partly driven by the potential of Maximal Extractable Value (MEV) to augment revenues. VanEck envisions a broader application of blockchain technology beyond finance, encompassing areas such as gaming, social media, and infrastructure. This indicates a future where L2s play a central role in the global blockchain ecosystem.