When will the cryptocurrency bull market come to a close?
Bitcoin’s recent surge to $65,000 has sparked optimism in the volatile cryptocurrency market. As Bitcoin makes a comeback, altcoins have also experienced significant gains of 10% to 20%, leading investors to speculate if this marks the beginning of a new crypto bull run. Throughout the last decade, Bitcoin’s price history has been characterized by alternating periods of bear and bull markets. Typically, bull markets are triggered by Bitcoin halving events, while the two years leading up to each halving tend to be bearish.
At present, crypto analysts like Ted Pillows are examining the relationship between Bitcoin’s market cap and its realized cap to determine the current stage of the bull cycle. The market cap represents the total value of all Bitcoins, while the realized cap takes into account when coins were last moved, providing a more accurate assessment of Bitcoin’s true value.
Pillows has observed that the market cap is growing at a faster rate than the realized cap, a trend commonly associated with bull cycles. This suggests that speculative demand and investor confidence are driving up Bitcoin’s market value beyond its fundamental worth. By drawing parallels with previous bull cycles in 2013-14, 2016-17, and 2020-21, which exhibited similar patterns, Pillows predicts that the current bull run could follow a comparable trajectory. Based on this analysis, he anticipates that the current bull cycle may come to an end in April 2025.
Other crypto analysts also offer insights into the next bull run. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, suggests that Bitcoin is currently halfway through its bull cycle. He notes that Bitcoin’s actual market cap is increasing at a faster pace than its realized cap, a trend that typically lasts for approximately two years. Based on this pattern, Ju predicts that the current bull run will likely conclude within the next 11 months.
However, it is important to acknowledge that while historical patterns can provide valuable insights, market dynamics can always change, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
In terms of Bitcoin’s price, it has found support at $65,000, leading analysts to debate the possibility of a deeper correction. Some, like Yoddha, are optimistic about Bitcoin’s strength and anticipate only a minor correction. On the other hand, Dr. Martin Hiesboeck remains bullish in the long term. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital suggests that while a short-term correction or bottom for Bitcoin is possible, the overall downtrend may be over, with the potential for BTC to extend its gains beyond $67,000 and reach $70,000.
In conclusion, Bitcoin’s recent surge has sparked hope in the crypto markets, with investors eagerly watching for signs of a new bull run. Analysts are closely monitoring Bitcoin’s market cap and realized cap to gauge the current stage of the bull cycle. While historical patterns suggest that the current bull run may last for another 11 months, it is important to remember that market dynamics can change, and past performance does not guarantee future results.